Indias economy only getting stronger
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Indias expanding economy is drawing an increasing number of interested Thai investors as it is likely become one of the worlds key engines of growth in the near future, according to a leading financial sector expert.
"India today offers great opportunities in virtually every sector of the economy, be it infrastructure development, cement, textiles, services or others," said Anand Rathi, chairman of Anand Rathi, a leading India-based financial-services company. "Thailand, which has strength in agricultural-related goods, can participate in this growth either in the agricultural sector or others."
Mr Rathi, whose firm runs one of Indias leading securities houses, said that investors looking for equity investments in India, either via the stock market or in private partnerships, need not worry about the countrys growth prospects.
"Our house view is that the BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) will reach 17,000 points by the end of 2008, although you may see a correction of 5-10% occasionally," he said. The BSE currently stands at around 13,500 points.
Mr Rathi said that although a lot of foreign fund managers viewed the Indian market as one that was overpriced, he remains bullish due to the huge potential it offers in the future.
"The Indian story is unfolding now; India today is a story of rags to riches," said Mr Rathi, who was the president of BSE before he set up his firm in 1994. "Over the next 10 years, it is not impossible for India to show growth of between 8% and 10% per year as the country has the strength to achieve such growth levels."
Indias economic reforms, which started in the early 1990s after its foreign-exchange reserves dwindled, has yielded results as Indias gross domestic product (GDP) has seen a sharp increase. It has risen from about 3.7% during the 1960s to more than 6.5% in the past six years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised this years forecast by 1% to 8.3%.
"India will become the third engine of growth in the future," he said, adding in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms the country is now third after the US and China and ahead of Japan.
The countrys growth has been helped by a remarkable shift in government policies and the growing importance of the services sector. The composition of the services sector in Indias growth has moved up gradually to 57.6% in 2005 against 42.9% seen in 1985. The agricultural sector now accounts for a mere 20.5% against 37.63% during the same period.
This is a good sign, Mr Rathi said, as it helps the country move away from reliance on good rainy season to help its growth.
A younger population base that is well educated and focused on the technical field has only helped further the aspirations of the country, which had been shunned by investors.
India today is aiming for exports of $500 billion by the end of 2008 - basically quadrupling the current figures. It wants to see $350 billion come from trade in goods and services, with $126 billion from exports.
These aims can be achieved, analysts say. By 2016, it is estimated that 55% of the countrys population would be between the ages of 20 and 60 years old, the working age group with the highest productivity.
Apart from this, the corporate and public sectors are on a roll, with their revenues and earnings increasing year-on-year.
"All this points to the fact that the bull run will continue, although we may have corrections sometimes," Mr Rathi said. "Buoyant domestic macro factors, resilient international interest in Indian equities and a strong corporate outlook makes India one of the best markets in the long term."
He said the price-to-earnings ratio of between 18 and 20 times is not that high when taking into account future growth.
"The premium for the Indian market is for better macros, higher GDP growth, more visible reforms and better control of the fiscal deficit than in the past. Compared to companies in other Asian emerging markets, we have more profitable and efficient companies, with greater quality in terms of corporate governance."
Mr Rathi said that another reason to invest in India is a stronger currency. The Indian Rupee will likely strengthen in the years to come as higher foreign direct investments, coupled with strong economic growth, will push the currency to edge higher against major currencies.
"There are various factors for this. Among them is the higher current account surpluses, increased capital expenditure to help increase the earnings of companies, and, with more than $30 billion in remittances from expatriate Indians, the countrys currency could strengthen."
On the issue of a possible slowdown in the global economy and its impact on India, he said the high reliance of India on its domestic market for growth would likely keep the economy on the move even if the export market slows down.
"While global risk factors are also likely to affect India, greater domestic orientation of Indian companies would limit such adverse impacts as compared to their peers," he said.
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